Extreme Value Theory in practice: Insights into flood risk assessment

This seminar will explore the practical application of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in the context of risk assessment for river floods. Drawing from my professional experience, I will demonstrate how I have employed EVT to generate risk ratings for exposures of insurers and banks. The focus will be on practical implementation rather than technical intricacies. One of the key deliverables for our clients is a flood risk analysis based on simulated rainfall events. Utilizing advanced flood simulation software, we model water flow at a high resolution (20 meters or finer) across the entire country. From the resultant water depth and velocity data, we compute the risk profile for individual properties.

The current focus area is the assessment of a 1-in-100-year flood event. To this end, we leverage daily satellite data on rainfall. Using EVT methods, we determine the 1-in-100-year rainfall scenario, where "rainfall" specifically refers to the maximum one-day rainfall within a given month. The seminar will cover the practical use of EVT in this context, along with the limitations and considerations that come with such an application. This session aims to provide attendees with insights into the practicalities and challenges of applying EVT in real-world scenarios.