Speaker

  • Dr Lisa Kirkland

    Dr Lisa Kirkland

Lisa Kirkland recently earned her PhD in Mathematical Statistics from the University of Pretoria (UP), where her academic journey began 22 years ago. Initially uncertain about her career path, she started in Engineering but soon shifted to a BSc in Mathematics, drawn by her natural aptitude for mathematical subjects. During her undergraduate studies, she developed a passion for Statistics and computer programming, though her academic progress was interrupted by a severe spinal cord injury. After recovering, she completed her BSc via correspondence at UNISA, majoring in Mathematics and Statistics, and pursued her Honours with a focus on Statistics. She returned to UP for her postgraduate studies and found her academic home in the Department of Statistics. Professionally, Lisa has worked as a data analyst in the insurance industry, where she enjoyed fitting pricing models. Currently, she is a Director of an accounting company, where she applies her self-taught skills in database management and web development.

Abstract

This work aims to simplify and evaluate resource allocation strategies in wildlife security. The current standard, the Stackelberg Security Game (SSG), has limitations due to invalid assumptions and high computational demands for large action sets. First, a simplified game model is proposed where the rangers act as followers, allowing the use of observed attack data to infer poachers' mixed-strategy through point pattern analysis and spatial features. This helps rangers find better mixed-strategy responses than the SSG. Secondly, an evaluation framework for wildlife security games is presented, which simulates wildlife, ranger, and poacher movements using real-world geography to assess strategy effectiveness. It contrasts rangers' strategies with random movements and intelligent poacher models that adapt based on past events. The results show that rangers perform better with the Stackelberg model, especially when acting as followers. This approach outperforms baseline models and Nash equilibrium, particularly when arrests are a key utility factor. Future work should focus on applying these methods to real-world data, incorporating real-time updates, satellite imagery, and modeling multiple groups to refine the evaluation framework.


Registration

Spatial Statistics Event | 12 September 2024

Integrating Spatial Point Process Models into Wildlife Security Games - Dr Lisa Kirkland

Member Price Complimentary