The dual visa exemption between China and Thailand should increase outbound travellers to China by at least 10%, but inbound numbers from the mainland might not reach the government projection of 8.2 million, according to the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta).
Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, president of Atta, said the mutual cooperation signifies good relations between the nations, benefiting the tourism industries in both by encouraging airlines to increase seat capacity as the markets strengthen.
According to Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, the permanent reciprocal visa-free scheme will be effective from March 1.
Mr Sisdivachr said Japan served as a successful test case, as that country offered a visa exemption for Thai passport holders a decade ago, and Thai tourists to Japan reached the 1 million milestone in 2019.
The scheme is expected to increase Thai visitors to China by 10-30% from current levels, he said.
However, Mr Sisdivachr said growth would still be hampered by limited flights, as seat capacity between Thailand and China has recovered by only 50%, while airfares remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Even with the visa exemption, he said it will be a challenge to increase Chinese arrivals to 8.2 million, the government target for 2024.
A sluggish economy in China and locals pivoting to domestic tourism means it is more likely arrivals from the mainland will tally 6-7 million this year, said Mr Sisdivachr.
He said Thailand should gauge Chinese tourism sentiment during the Chinese New Year holiday from the end of January through early February.
If there is a significant surge of Chinese arrivals coming from both chartered and scheduled flights, this could be a good sign for the following months, said Mr Sisdivachr.
He said the Thai government should continue discussions with the EU about a visa-free scheme as Thai travellers are required to apply for a Schengen visa, while a lot of Europeans visit Thailand annually.
Thailand's slow economic growth will have an impact on outbound trips, as people reduced their spending on tourism, leaving only those with high purchasing power able to afford outbound trips, said Mr Sisdivachr.
He said visa exemptions would not only help Thai tourists save on application fees, but also it would facilitate trip planning if people can avoid worrying about visa approval.
China is known for its abundant nature and variety of food, with popular destinations comprising Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming, Guangzhou and Chengdu, said Mr Sisdivachr.
Tour packages normally last 4-5 days. Most Thais tend to travel abroad during long holidays, such as Songkran, he said.