The increased difficulty of obtaining popular visas in Thailand and Singapore could benefit Malaysia, according to Juwai IQI, a regional real estate technology company.
The changes could drive the equivalent of 20.6 billion baht in new spending in Malaysia over the next five years, as well as 53.5 billion baht in new bank deposits and 267 million baht in application fees paid to the Kuala Lumpur government, said Kashif Ansari, the co-founder and group CEO of Juwai IQI.
"Malaysia is seeking investment, job creation, supply chain localisation and skilled labour. When other visa programmes turn applicants away, Malaysia may benefit," he said.
"Thailand has indicated it will make major changes to its popular Elite Card programme as of Oct 1, possibly raising fees by as much as 500%."
The Elite Card programme includes a residency visa similar to Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H), but with more than 25,000 participants.
Thailand Privilege Card Co (TPC), the operator of the Elite Card programme, has said that people can still apply for its six existing Elite packages until Sept 15 at the existing rates, which range from 600,000 to 2 million baht and also include annual fees in some cases.
TPC has acknowledged that prices will rise on Oct 1 but it has not said by how much. It has also been speculated that vetting of applicants will be tightened, as law enforcement officials have complained that many foreign criminal figures hold Elite memberships.
THREE AREAS OF REFORM
"Based on official comments, insiders expect three areas of reform," said Mr Ansari. "Enrolment and renewal fees will increase, making the Thai visas more expensive. The number of packages offered will decrease and be simplified. Also, applicants will need to provide more information and background checks.
"The industry also expects the new Elite Visa to be influenced by airline loyalty programmes, with different visa durations and tiers of participation, perhaps like gold, silver and bronze. Participants may be able to earn points and redeem them for benefits."
Last year, the Thai government estimated that each Elite holder spent an average of US$28,320 per person on personal consumption, Mr Ansari said.
Participation in the Elite Card programme has climbed sharply over the past three years. In 2022, net membership grew by 5,582, the largest one-year increase ever. Net participants climbed in 2021 by 4,262 and in 2020 by 4,820. Before the pandemic, the year with the highest growth saw a net gain of only 2,149.
"If Thailand changes its visa as much as expected, the Elite Card could lose market share to Malaysia," said Mr Ansari.
"We estimate that the changes to the Thai Elite visa could redirect from 5% to 25% of new applicants to Malaysia instead of Thailand."
Over five years, that could result in as much as 7 billion ringgit in new deposits in Malaysian banks. In the same time frame, it could also lead to the government earning 35 million ringgit in application fees and visa holders directly spending for personal consumption some 2.7 billion ringgit.
"The personal consumption estimate is based on a conservative assumption that each visa holder spends an average of US$28,320 on personal consumption per year," said Mr Ansari.
MM2H rules require successful applicants to deposit a minimum of 1 million ringgit in a Malaysian bank and to pay a fee of 5,000 ringgit.
CHANGES IN SINGAPORE
Singapore is also revising one of its visa programmes in ways that could benefit Malaysia. New rules coming into effect on Sept 1 will make it harder for companies to hire foreign employees under the popular Singapore Employment Pass visa.
With its changes, Singapore hopes to increase local employment by making it more difficult for companies to hire foreigners.
"An average of about 180,000 people hold a Singapore Employment Pass. It's not clear yet how significant an impact the rule changes will have," said Mr Ansari. "If the number of Employment Pass visas drops significantly and companies perceive Malaysia as a friendlier environment, some companies or employees may shift to Malaysia."